Seasonal dynamic factor analysis and bootstrap inference : application to electricity market forecasting

Year-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is an important issue in the current context of electricity markets. Nevertheless, only one-day-ahead forecasting is commonly tackled up in previous published works. Moreover, methodology developed for the short-term does not work properly for long-term forecasting. In this paper we provide a seasonal extension of the Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, to deal with the interesting problem (both from the economic and engineering point of view) of long term forecasting of electricity prices. Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA) allows to deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series, in such a way that extracts common and specific components. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal one, by means of common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p,d,q)×(P,D,Q)s model. Besides, a bootstrap procedure is proposed to be able to make inference on all the parameters involved in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing to enhance the coverage of forecast confidence intervals. Concerning the innovative and challenging application provided, bootstrap procedure developed allows to calculate not only point forecasts but also forecasting intervals for electricity prices

Seasonal dynamic factor analysis and bootstrap inference : application to electricity market forecasting

Year-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is an important issue in the current context of electricity markets. Nevertheless, only one-day-ahead forecasting is commonly tackled up in previous published works. Moreover, methodology developed for the short-term does not work properly for long-term forecasting. In this paper we provide a seasonal extension of the Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, to deal with the interesting problem (both from the economic and engineering point of view) of long term forecasting of electricity prices. Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA) allows to deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series, in such a way that extracts common and specific components. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal one, by means of common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p,d,q)×(P,D,Q)s model. Besides, a bootstrap procedure is proposed to be able to make inference on all the parameters involved in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing to enhance the coverage of forecast confidence intervals. Concerning the innovative and challenging application provided, bootstrap procedure developed allows to calculate not only point forecasts but also forecasting intervals for electricity prices.Dynamic factor analysis, Bootstrap, Forecasting, Confidence intervals

2D kinematics of the edge-on spiral galaxy ESO 379-G006

We present a kinematical study of the nearly edge-on galaxy ESO 379-G006 that shows the existence of extraplanar ionized gas. With Fabry-Perot spectroscopy at H-alpha, we study the kinematics of ESO 379-G006 using velocity maps and position-velocity diagrams parallel to the major and to the minor axis of the galaxy. We build the rotation curve of the disk and discuss the role of projection effects due to the fact of viewing this galaxy nearly edge-on. The twisting of the isovelocities in the radial velocity field of the disk of ESO 379-G006 as well as the kinematic asymmetries found in some position-velocity diagrams parallel to the minor axis of the galaxy suggest the existence of deviations to circular motions in the disk that can be modeled and explained with the inclusion of a radial inflow probably generated by a bar or by spiral arms. We succeeded in detecting extraplanar Diffuse Ionized Gas in this galaxy. At the same time, from the analysis of position-velocity diagrams, we found some evidence that the extraplanar gas could lag in rotation velocity with respect to the midplane rotation.Comment: 61 pages, 15 figures. Accepted for publication in A

Behavioural loyalty towards store brands.

This paper applies a consumer brand choice model to measure store brand (SB) loyalty. The aim of this paper is to examine whether SB loyalty is different across categories, and we focus on risk perception as an explanatory variable. The model is estimated using ACNielsen Spanish household scanner panel data on two laundry detergent categories over a 2 year period for more than 1107 households. Loyalty, price, socio demographics and shopping behaviour variables are included. The discrete choice model formulation is the logit modelStore brands; National brands; Brand loyalty; Logit model; Household scanner panel;

Prevenção da evasão escolar do ensino secundário na Andaluzia já que a voz dos professores: Estudo de caso

El fracaso escolar es un concepto complejo. Suele achacarse a los sujetos como porcentualmente inevitable y se ignoran los demás fracasos convergentes (metodológicos, curriculares, organizativos…). Los centros poseen autonomía pedagógica para afrontar este reto. Este estudio de caso presenta una medida de apoyo en contraste con la realidad del aula ordinaria. Utiliza relatos de experiencia y entrevistas en profundidad. Destaca la importancia de prevenir la construcción de trayectorias consumadas de fracaso escolar. Reivindica la flexibilización curricular, la personalización de los procesos de enseñanza-aprendizaje, mediante metodologías activas y participativas y las altas expectativas sobre el alumnadoSchool failure is a complex concept. It is usually attributed to the subjects as percentage inevitable and the other convergent failures are ignored (methodological, curricular, organizational ...). Schools have pedagogical autonomy to face this challenge. This case study presents a measure of support in contrast to the reality of the ordinary classroom. We use stories of experience and in-depth interviews. It emphasizes the importance of preventing the construction of consummate trajectories of school failure. The article calls for curricular flexibility, personalization of teaching-learning processes, through active and participative methodologies and high expectations about studentsO fracasso escolar é um conceito complexo. Geralmente atribuída aos sujeitos como uma percentagem inevitável e outros convergiram falhas (metodológicos, curriculares, organizacional ...) são ignoradas. Os centros têm autonomia pedagógica para enfrentar este desafio. Este estudo de caso apresenta uma medida de apoio em contraste com a realidade da sala de aula comum. Use relatos de experiência e entrevistas. Ele salienta a importância de prevenir a construção de fracasso escolar caminhos consumados. Vindica a flexibilidade curricular, personalização do ensino-aprendizagem através de metodologias ativas e participativas e grandes expectativas para os aluno

Nickel-Imidazolium Low Transition Temperature Mixtures with Lewis-Acidic Character

Low transition temperature mixtures (LTTMs) are a new generation of solvents that have found extensive application in organic synthesis. The interactions between the components often generate highly activated, catalytically active species, thus opening the possibility of using LTTMs as catalysts, rather than solvents. In this work, we introduce a nickel-based imidazolium LTTM, study its thermal behavior and explore its catalytic activity in the solvent-free allylation of heterocycles with allylic alcohols. This system is effective in this reaction, affording the corresponding products in excellent yield without the need for additional purifications, thus resulting in a very environmentally friendly protocol.This research was funded by Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (grant number PID2021-127332NB-I00), Generalitat Valenciana (grant numbers AICO/2021/013 and IDIFEDER/2021/013) and University of Alicante (grant numbers VIGROB-316, UAUSTI22-23, UADIF22-104)

Imidazolium-urea Low Transition Temperature Mixtures for the UHP-promoted oxidation of boron compounds

Different carboxy-functionalized imidazolium salts have been considered as components of low transition temperature mixtures (LTTMs) in combination with urea. Among them, a novel LTTM based on 1-(methoxycarbonyl)methyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride and urea has been prepared and characterized by differential scanning calorimetry throughout its entire composition range. This LTTM has been employed for the oxidation of boron reagents using urea-hydrogen peroxide adduct (UHP) as the oxidizer, thus avoiding the use of aqueous H2O2, which is dangerous to handle. This metal-free protocol affords the corresponding alcohols in good to quantitative yields in up to 5 mmol scale without the need of further purification. The broad composition range of the LTTM allows for the reaction to be carried out up to three consecutive times with a single imidazolium salt loading offering remarkable sustainability with an E-factor of 7.9, which can be reduced to 3.2 by the threefold reuse of the system.This work was financially supported by the University of Alicante (VIGROB-316, UAUSTI20-16), the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (PGC2018-096616-B-I00), and the Generalitat Valenciana (AICO/2021/013). M.M. thanks the ISO (University of Alicante) for a predoctoral contract

Iron-Based Imidazolium Salt as Dual Lewis Acid and Redox Catalyst for the Aerobic Synthesis of Quinazolines

A low transition temperature mixture formed with 1-butyl-3-(methoxycarbonylmethyl)imidazolium chloride and iron(III) chloride has proven to be an efficient catalyst for the synthesis of quinazolines following a sequence of condensation-cyclization-oxidation reactions. The protocol is simple and effective for coupling 2-acylanilines and benzylamines to form nitrogen containing heterocycles with moderate to excellent yields (up to 93%), being possible to perform the reaction in preparative scale. The functionalized imidazolium salt is crucial for the activation of the reagents under solvent-free conditions, and the presence of iron in the catalyst mediates the oxidation step with atmospheric oxygen. These features make the presented procedure better, from an environmental point of view, than other processes previously described. For this comparison, different "green" metrics have been used, such as atom economy, stoichiometric factor, reaction mass efficiency, E-factor and EcoScale.This work was financially supported by the University of Alicante (VIGROB-316, UADIF20-106, UAUSTI21-15), the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (PGC2018-096616-B-I00), the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (PID2021-127332NB-I00), and the Generalitat Valenciana (AICO/2021/013). M.M. thanks the ISO (University of Alicante) for a predoctoral contract

Caffeine intake in Hungary – A population based estimation

Caffeine is a bitter, white crystalline xanthine alkaloid that is synthesized in different parts of more than 60 plant species. In a previous study, caffeine content of 377 food samples obtained from the Hungarian market was measured by a validated HPLC technique. These analytical data were built up into a food composition database called NutriComp. Dietary caffeine intake of the Hungarian population was estimated based on the data of the National Nutritional Status Survey 2009. Daily caffeine intake of Hungarian adult males and females were 147±6.2 mg per capita (95% CI: 135–160), and 138±4.2 mg per capita (95% CI: 129–147), respectively. There was no significant difference between genders. The oldest men and women consumed significantly less caffeine than the people between 35–64 years of age. The main sources of caffeine are coffee and tea with 58–59%, and 35–37% of the total intake in men and women, respectively

Preferences for efficiency, rather than preferences for morality, drive cooperation in the one-shot Stag-Hunt game

Recent work highlights that cooperation in the one-shot Prisoner's dilemma (PD) is primarily driven by moral preferences for doing the right thing, rather than social preferences for equity or efficiency. To our knowledge, nothing is known on whether moral preferences affect cooperation in the Stag-Hunt Game (SHG). Cooperation in the SHG fundamentally differs from cooperation in the PD in that it is not costly, but risky: players have no temptation to deviate from the cooperative outcome, but cooperation only pays off if the other player cooperates. Here we provide data from two experiments (total N = 523) to investigate SHG cooperation. Contrary to what has been observed for the PD, we find that SHG cooperation is primarily driven by preferences for efficiency, rather than moral preferences for doing the right thing